Using a risk-based approach to project scheduling: A case illustration from semiconductor manufacturing

This paper introduces a risk-based optimization method to schedule projects. The method uses risk mitigation and optimal control techniques to minimize variables such as the project duration or the cost estimate at completion. Mitigation actions reduce the risk impacts that may affect the system. A model predictive control approach is used to determine the set of mitigation actions to be executed and the time in which they are taken. A real-life project in the field of semiconductor manufacturing has been taken as an example to show the benefits of the method in a deterministic case and a Monte Carlo simulation has also been carried out.     

物流客户服务水平的综合评价研究

本文在客户问卷调查的基础上,结合国外有关的物流企业客户服务指标,建立了物流客户服务水平评价的指标体系,同时应用定性与定量分析相结合的方法,建立了属性综合评价的物流客户服务水平评价模型,并给出了具体的应用实例.     

Constant dividend barrier in a risk model with interclaim-dependent claim sizes

The risk model with interclaim-dependent claim sizes proposed by Boudreault et al. [Boudreault, M., Cossette, H., Landriault, D., Marceau, E., 2006. On a risk model with dependence between interclaim arrivals and claim sizes. Scand. Actur. J., 265-285] is studied in the presence of a constant dividend barrier. An integro-differential equation for some Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty functions is derived. We show that its solution can be expressed as the solution to the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function in the same risk model with the absence of a barrier and a combination of two linearly independent solutions to the associated homogeneous integro-differential equation. Finally, we analyze the expected present value of dividend payments before ruin in the same class of risk models. An homogeneous integro-differential equation is derived and then solved. Its solution can be expressed as a different combination of the two fundamental solutions to the homogeneous integro-differential equation associated to the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function.     

Applications of a multi-state risk factor/mortality model in life insurance

Mortality rates are known to depend on socio-economic and behavioral risk factors, and actuarial calculations for life insurance policies usually reflect this. It is typically assumed, however, that these risk factors are observed only at policy issue, and the impact of changes that occur later is not considered. In this paper, we present a discrete-time, multi-state model for risk factor changes and mortality. It allows one to more accurately describe mortality dynamics and quantify variability in mortality. This model is extended to reflect health status and then used to analyze the impact of selective lapsation of life insurance policies and to predict mortality under reentry term insurance.     

Theoretical assessment of the errors involved in ultrasonic location and sizing of molten weld pools

Ultrasonic transit times may be used to locate the interface between molten weld metal and parent plate as a weld is formed. These transit times will lead to errors in interpretation of the location of the weld interface if account is not taken of the variation of ultrasonic velocity with temperature. We assess the magnitude of these errors using a theoretical model based on the Green's function to obtain the temperature distribution at any time and then convert the temperatures into elastic constants through empirical fits to high temperature data. A ray tracing method and a semi-analytical approach are used to estimate the effects of the changes in elastic constants on the ray paths and transit times. From these theoretical predictions we conclude that the location errors incurred by assuming ultrasonic velocities appropriate to cold metal are less than 0.5 mm for a 3.5 mm radius weld in austenitic steel or in iron. Experimental values tend to be larger than this, possibly suggesting that the solid-liquid interface is not as perfect as in the theoretical model. Under all of the conditions investigated, predicted errors are smaller with compression waves than with shear waves.     

战场敌情威胁的多级模糊综合评判

敌情威胁程度的判断是定下作战决心的基础.提出利用多级模糊综合评判的方法,首先利用层次分析法(AHP法)综合专家的判断,建立权重集,然后利用模糊综合评判理论对对战场某一指定区域的模糊敌情进行威胁程度判断,从而将两种方法的优点综合起来.并给出了一个应用该方法的海区模糊敌情判断实例,结论说明该方法可行.     

Residue behaviour and safety evaluation of fenaminstrobin in peanut field ecosystems

A rapid, sensitive, and selective method using a quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe procedure in combination with high-performance liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry was developed for the analysis of fenaminstrobin in peanut and soil. The average recoveries in all samples fall within 88.1%–10%, having relative standard deviations of 2.5%–14%. The limits of quantitation of fenaminstrobin in peanut shell, peanut kernels, peanut plant, and soil were 0.005, 0.004, 0.01, and 0.002 mg kg^?1, respectively. The field trial results show that the half-lives of fenaminstrobin in peanut plant and soil are 1.3–10 and 5.5–20 days, respectively. Residues in peanut kernels were found to be present at <0.004 mg kg^?1 levels, based on good agricultural practices recommended by the manufacturer. The risk posed by fenaminstrobin exposure at the recommended dosage is negligible to humans, depending on the risk quotient.     

大亚湾表层沉积物中生源要素的季节分布及污染评价

2006年7月至2007年11月采集了大亚湾10个采样点春、夏、秋和冬4季表层沉积物样品,分析了沉积物中的生物硅(BSi)、有机碳(TOC)、总氮(TN)和总磷(TP)含量。结果表明:大亚湾生源要素含量与国内外港湾相比属于中等水平;春季BSi、TP的平均含量分别为1.09%、0.043%;夏季BSi、TOC、TN、TP的平均含量分别为1.21%、1.05%、0.37%、0.043%;秋季BSi、TP的平均含量分别为0.99%、0.038%;冬季BSi、TOC、TN、TP的平均含量分别为1.09%、0.84%、0.11%、0.039%。根据TN/TP和TOC/TN比值判断,大亚湾沉积物为磷限制;夏季TOC主要来源于水生有机碳,冬季为混合来源。夏季表层沉积物中BSi、TOC、TN和TP的平均含量均高于其他季节;其中夏季各站位TN的含量较冬季要高,反映了夏季较高的硅藻生产力以及较丰富的地表径流。大亚湾大部分采样点TOC和TN的污染基本属于Ⅱ类,TP属于Ⅰ类,可能对底栖生物群落具有一定毒害作用。     

Life cycle assessment and sustainability analysis of products, materials and technologies. Toward a scientific framework for sustainability life cycle analysis

There are many approaches to study the environmental and sustainability aspects of production and consumption. Some of these reside at the level of concepts, e.g., industrial ecology, design for environment, and cleaner production. Other approaches are based on the use of quantitative models, e.g., life cycle assessment, material flow accounting and strategic environmental assessment. This paper focuses on the development of a framework that is able to incorporate different models for environmental analysis, with the option of a broader scope that also includes economic and social aspects, thus covering the three pillars of sustainability. This framework builds on the ISO-framework for life cycle assessment, but takes a broader view, and allows us to move from micro questions on specific products, via meso questions on life styles up to macro questions in which the entire societal structure is part of the analysis.     

Radiochemical characterization of spring waters in Balaton Upland, Hungary, estimation of radiation dose to members of public

Hungary is rich in spring waters. A survey studying the naturally occurring alpha emitter radionuclides in 30 frequently visited and regularly consumed spring waters was conducted out in the Balaton Upland region of Hungary.²²⁶Ra, ²²⁴Ra, ²³⁴U, ²³⁸U and ²¹⁰Po activity concentrations were determined by using alpha spectrometry after separation from matrix elements. Average concentration (mBq L^{− 1}) of ²²⁶Ra, ²²⁴Ra, ²³⁴U, ²³⁸U and ²¹⁰Po in the spring waters is varied from 2.1 to 601, from < 1.1 to 65.4, from 3.9 to 741.9, from < 0.44 to 274.3 and from 2 to 15.2 respectively. In most cases radioactive disequilibrium was observed between uranium and radium isotopes. The doses for the analyzed samples of spring water are in the range 3.59–166.73 μSv y^{− 1} with an average 18.2 μSv y^{− 1} .This is well below the 100 μSv y^{− 1} reference level of the committed effective dose recommended by WHO. Only one water sample had a dose higher than 100 μSv y^{− 1}, mainly due to the contribution from radium (²²⁶Ra, ²²⁴Ra) and ²¹⁰Po isotopes. This study provides important information for consumers and authorities about their internal radiological exposure risk from spring water intake.